I watched this past weekend's football fully expecting to have Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tim Tebow shoved down my throat as a combined story lines of divergent ways that the future of NFL offenses may be going....Tom Brady and the Patriots embarrassing mutilation of the Broncos fully pushed into view exactly what the NFL thinks about the "Running Game/Sound Defense" theory of football teams...The NFL wants none of it.  In fact, after the Broncos-Patriots contest, I was fully of the opinion that what the NFL truly wants is 100-98 basketball-type scores. 

But then something funny happened...the Forty-Niners and Giants dethroned Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers, respectively in what had to have the people back in the New York offices mighty upset.  Where has the long anticipated opening day rematch of the Packers and Saints gone? 

The old adage has always been "Offense puts people in the seats, defense wins championships."  The NFL, via rule changes, questionable officiating, and broadcast television, have been trying for years to debunk this theory.

And for the most part they have.  The five yard chuck rule, the overzealous flagging of hits to the quarterback, the horse collar tackle, the protecting of receivers going over the middle...all of this has led to defenses being almost completely hand tied in their attempts to slow down offensive juggernauts...just as the NFL has foreseen...

But this past weekend...SF and NY seemingly made stands for the way football used to be played.  They won with enough defense to slow down these passing juggernauts...although in the SF-NO game, one could make the argument that the 49er defense simply managed to keep them in the game until the last five minute onslaught of offensive fireworks...but still...there was defense and there was a lot of rushing from Frank Gore and even Alex Smith scored on a 28 year QB keeper...

The old ways can still stand...but will they be allowed to next year?

So what did we learn?

1.  Defense can still win, but I fear that the Lions are not built with the kind of defense that does.  The Lions defense is built upon the defensive line, from the tackles out.  Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairly are cornerstones for the future...but the ends?  I'm worried about the defensive ends.

Kyle VandenBosch is an incredible motor guy and an unquestioned leader...but I don't think it's too far fetched to say that he gets by on his work ethic and non-stop motor than he does with his baseline talent.  If you look at the ends of SF and NY, you see lean long speedsters in the mold of a Julius Peppers (Justin Tuck, Osi Umeniyora, etc)...you might be able to say that KVB is a bit like SF's DE Justin Smith...but Smith is a much more powerful, younger, and faster version....this brings up the question of what to do about Cliff Avril, who will be negotiating for a new contract this offseason. 

Avril is a somewhat known commodity as he has increasingly gotten better every season, this year he had a career high 11 sacks...but he is not in the mold of a Tuck or a Peppers or Umeniyora...he is a shorter, fast end...he is not in the top 5 in the league...11 sacks is respectable...but that's supposed to be what he averages every year...if he's truly great, that'd be a down year for a pro bowl defensive end...Is that worth top 3-4 DE money in the league? 

On the other hand, this is the second new year under the new CBA--and most importantly, a rookie salary structure--and the prospect of trying to draft one or two of those long, lean speedsters and bargain basement prices might be best for the organization...especially when you consider the possibility of Calvin Johnson needing a new contract....

2. Great linebackers can make all the difference.  In SF, Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman are studs.  They are fast, mean, glass-chewing tackling machines.  They are players with misguided, evil, malevolent hearts when they are on the football field and they can stop the run and cover tight ends out of the backfield.  I don't think the Lions have a single linebacker that can do that.

Willis and Bowman rarely ever miss assignments, and they almost never miss a tackle.  In the Lions loss to the Saints, Tulloch was out of place several times and Justin Durant missed several tackles.

The Lions were one of the worst teams this season in rush defense and while a lot of the blame tends to get heaped upon the D-Line, I'm sure a lot of it should also get shoveled in the direction of the Detroit linebackers who were unable to fill the proper holes and even when they did properly fill missed too many tackles.

3. Teams are going to start loading up on cornerbacks...probably taller cornerbacks if possible.  Last offseason, I set my hopes on two cornerbacks...free agent Carlos Rogers...who was signed up by SF and is going to the pro bowl and Nebraska's Prince Amukamara...who was drafted by the Giants, had an off and on year, but was a big part of eliminating the Packers WR Jordy Nelson this past weekend and is now heading to the NFC Championship game...

Chris Houston had some awful games...Eric Wright didn't exactly light the league...

So, while the Lions are completely stacked at DT...there are still ALOT of positions that the need to be addressed this off season, both prudently and financially intelligently.

With 5 minutes left in the fourth quarter at Lambeau, it occurred to me that Matthew Stafford had never lost at Lambeau...never...ever...in his whole career...of course, he'd never played there before either.  He'd been hurt in both of the Lions previous games at Lambeau Field.

And for a moment, despite the fact that the Lions defense may have played better if they didn't even show up at the game, may have played better if they'd played blindfolded, may have played better if they'd played with all of their shoelaces tied together... I thought that maybe the Lions could start a new streak...a new tradition...maybe the Packers would have to deal with Stafford slapping them silly every year for the next fifteen years...

I thought that this was a special year.  The streaks WOULD end!  The Lions would win....how could they not?  The Packers were playing with second and third stringers.  The Lions were playing against the same Matt Flynn that could only manage a field goal in the game he was forced into last season when the Lions were able to knock Rodgers from the game with a concussion.

Aaron Rodgers sat this game out.  Clay Matthews sat this game out.  Charles Woodson sat this game out. 

And still...the Lions...frankly...simply....just blew it.

The Lions started the game off with a touchdown and a safety....they were spotted a 9-0 lead...and they still managed to lose 45-41.  That means, from the middle of the first quarter on....the Lions were outscored 45-32...

If the Lions couldn't manage to beat the Packers second string...maybe they don't really even belong in the playoffs. 

So now, instead of probably facing the Giants next weekend..the Lions will travel to play the New Orleans Saints--where they have not lost all season.  Where Drew Brees can pretty much walk on water this season.  The word "Doomed" comes to mind...  Only a crazy person would expect the Lions be able to get their second playoff win in 55 years next week...

Now, the game wasn't all bad...just all bad defensively...Stafford managed to throw for 520 yards and 5 TD's...of course he also threw two very costly interceptions, but still 500+ yards is pretty damned impressive.  244 of those yards went to Calvin Johnson. 

Of course that means that Stafford threw for a Lions record 5,038 yards this season (the previous all time record before the aforementioned Brees shattered it this year) was 5,085 yards by Dan Marina.  He also threw for a Lions record 41 TD's this season...

And Stafford still didn't even make the probowl.

Before we get into the must win game against the Packers at Lambeau Field this Sunday, let's discuss how on Earth Eli Manning made the probowl over Matthew Stafford this season.  Aside from the fact that the Detroit Lions have had only one probowl quarterback since Bobby Layne...Greg Landry in 1971...40 years ago...there's another streak I'd hoped the Lions would break this year...a sheer stats comparison between the two should clearly show who was the better signal caller this season.

Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees were givens...they had to make the probowl.  The Packers almost went undefeated behind Rodger's super hot throwing and Brees just broke the passing yardage record which stood for almost 30 years...

Stafford has completed a higher percentage of his passes, with 10 more TD's and 2 fewer interceptions.  Manning managed to throw for 60 more yards over the season, but also has a lower QB rating and, most importantly, fewer wins.

Eli Manning engineered five come from behind victories--supposedly the key to a great quarterback's success is being able to bring a team back from the brink.  Joe Montana was a master at it.  John Elway was incredible.  A team is never out of a game when the guy taking the snaps has ice in his veins in the fourth quarter when everything is on the line and the score board is tilted in favor of the other guys.

Manning did this FIVE times this year.  The Giants were down, on average, 6 points when he had to pull them up and out of certain defeat.  That's pretty impressive....

Of course Stafford only managed to do this four times...but his deficits were different.  The Lions were down, on average almost 17 points in those games.  On two occasions, they were down more than 20 points...that's an entire game of scoring sometimes.  In my opinion, that's a wash, or maybe even a slight edge to Stafford.

Why is Stafford not in the probowl?  Because he doesn't play in New York....where Manning gets millions of extra votes from the hometown fans.

But...about the game...

The Packers have nothing to play for in this game.  They are 15-1 and wrapped up home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  The only thing the Packers truly have to be concerned about is keeping Aaron Rodgers healthy.  The fourth game of the preseason has just about as much value as this game for the Packers.

The Lions, on the other hand, NEED this game.  If the Lions can manage to win this game they will clinch the #5 seed in the playoffs.  The #5 seed will be playing the winner of the Cowboys/Giants game in the opening round of the playoffs...a game much more winnable than a trip to New Orleans or San Francisco--although I'd feel better about the Lions playing anybody but the Saints right now.

The Saints are on a tear.  They are a buzzsaw ripping through opponents right now.  Drew Brees has appeared virtually unstoppable in his last six games--one of those already being a blowout of the Lions.

I'd really like to see the Lions head to New York or Dallas, I think those games would probably have a much higher percentage chance of being won--and as everybody knows, the Lions have won only one playoff game since 1957 (1991)...Of course that was also the year of the last time the Lions won at Lambeau...

Packers Offense vs Lions Defense

 Truthfully, this is all about how much the Packers decide to play Aaron Rodgers.  Do they want to keep him safe on the shelf in order to have him perfectly healthy for what looks to be a long playoff run.  Or do they want to try and keep momentum going into the playoffs.

The last time Rodgers was hurt, a concussion sustained at the hands of our beloved Honolulu Blue, the Lions managed a 7-3 victory over the Packers and their second string QB Matt Flynn.  That victory was more than a year ago now and the Lions are a much, much different team now.

If the Packers sit Rodgers or only play him for a half or less....

Advantage: Lions

Packers Defense vs Lions Offense

Personally, I don't really understand why the Pacers D is ranked so low in so many categories.  BJ Raji is a monster, Clay Matthews is a ffierce and scary pass rusher and Charles Woodson is still the best corner back in the NFC...and his cornerback partner Tramon Williams might must be the second best...

But, for some reason, the Packers D IS at the bottom of the barrel.  I like Stafford's chances...especially after the huge slight he received from the NFL in not getting named to the probowl.  He's really got something to prove. 

The Lions offense and Stafford is really, really hot right now...

Advantage: Lions

Prediction: Detroit 28, Packers 17...an end to the curse of Lambeau Field...please, please don't let me have jinxed them...

I was going to write this great write-up of the last time the Packers and Lions hooked up on Thanksgiving with the Packers undefeated and the Lions with a winning record...

But then ESPN beat me to it...and SI's Peter King did it too...

So now, you probably already know that the last time the Lions and Packers played a game of this magnitude on Thanksgiving was 1962...and the Lions won.

Now, I'm a big proponent of history...in that I'm always terrified it's going to repeat itself...because I'm dealing with Lions history and none of it has been all that good for more than 50 years.  So who wants any of that stuff repeating itself?

Heck, the Lions are currently 7-3...which, in my book, means they can still match that 7-9 record that preceded 0-24.

But this history...this is GOOD history...even though they didn't win a championship in 1962.  It was the second year in a row they won something called the "Runners Up Game."  And really, that says a lot about what kind of ancient history this 1962 game is.  Can you imagine the NFL having a "Runners Up Game" now?  The week before the Super Bowl?

Hmm...now that I think about it, that'd be a heck of a lot better than getting stuck watching the ProBowl.

But, the game would have absolutely no meaning as there is no special prize for third place...and I'm sure the NFLPA would go crazy if anybody even suggested it.

But the Lions DID win that game in 1962 and then the Packers won the championship...which may very well happen again this season.

I am still very, very scared of Aaron Rodgers.  Sadly, he has become everything that I hoped he wouldn't become.  He's a little like Anakin Skywalker...you kind of thought, "Yeah, that kids good, but he's got a pretty bad attitude...eh, don't worry about him.  He probably won't ever amount to anything...."  And then BAM!  Darth Vader...was that too geeky of a tangent....sorry.

But Aaron Rodgers is the Darth Vader of the NFL these days.  He is slicing everybody up and the Lions are the next team on his target list for destruction.

Green Bay Offense vs Detroit Defense

Seriously?  The Packers have the number one offense in the NFL...perhaps the best NFL offense in a number of years.  Aaron Rodgers is almost unstoppable.

This is where the butter meats the bread....where the rubber meets the road...where the gravy covers the gibblets?  The Detroit Lions are built to play in the NFC North.  They have built an imposing defensive line designed to quickly disrupt the throwing prowess of Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler.  Suh and Avril and VandenBosch need to be in Rodgers' face at all times.  In the 1962 game, the Lions sacked Bart Starr 11 times....this year, Rodgers is playing so well, the Lions may have to do that every quarter.

The Packers already questionable run attack has taken another hit as starting RB James Starks came out of last weeks game injured and will probably play this week at less than a hundred percent. 

In the end, it probably doesn't matter.  Rodgers is the soul and engine of that team...only if the Lions can bury him in the turf can the Lions hope to win.  They need to break his ribs into dust, so that some time in the third or fourth quarter the world will be able to see his beating heart...glowing like ET just trying to go home...trying to get away...

Advantage: Packers

Green Bay Defense vs Detroit Offense

The Pack has one of the worst rated defenses in the league...which, in my book, means jack squat.  The reason the Packers are giving up so many yards is that they are blowing everybody out.  Teams are desperately throwing the ball in hail mary attempts to get back into these games.

Charles Woodson, BJ Raji, Tramon Williams and Clay Matthews are studs on that defense.  I just don't see the Lions offensive line being able to contain Williams and Raji for an entire game...just as much as I'd be shocked if Woodson doesn't get a pick six at some point in this game.

The Lions offense can score with the Packers...but this is still a very young team going up against the defending Super Bowl champs. I really worry about Stafford throwing against those two corners.  If Kevin Smith can get a ground game going and keep the Packers honest...things might get very interesting. 

Advantage: Even

Prediction

Packers 35, Lions 21

This game will be close for a while, but then I see the Lions faltering late (if they don't falter early too as they have been apt to do) and Stafford throwing a pick six to Woodson to end it.  Don't get me wrong, I want the Lions to win.  I'm pretty much certain that they will have to win at least one of their two games against the Packers in order to make the playoffs.  I will be cheering my head off all day...and I hope you will be too, because it's been a long time since we could do that on Thanksgiving.

For years the greatest nemesis in Lions-dom was the foul and nasty Brett Favre.  He won for 20+ years against the Lions....there was no silver bullet for that guy...oh, they beat him like two or three times in that twenty years, but for the most part, the Lions could not stop him..and he could do no wrong.

Favre's only weakness was his own ego.  If a team could manage to get him down more than two touchdowns, the old man would press and that underlying gunslinger would come out and he'd throw a couple of team killing interceptions.

But for the better part of the nineties and early 2000's, the guy played at a level much higher than the rest of the league.  He played mistake free...made impossible passes...and the Packers were perennial playoff contenders...heck, they pretty much ruled the NFC North for his entire reign of evil.

Of course now the "good ol' boy" from Kiln is gone...he's been gone from the Packers for a while now...and Aaron Rodgers just didn't seem to throw the fear of God into your average Lions fan...until now.

He is now the first QB in NFL history to go eight games with a 110+ QB rating...he's won 14 games in a row...he looks to be playing at a level even greater than the Devil who wore #4...and he's got me really, really nervous.  Rodgers appears to have no weaknesses...in fact, it's been so long since he's had a bad game, one begins to wonder if he even has a weakness at all.

Yes, the Lions did manage to beat the Packers last year after knocking him out of the game.  In that game, the Lions still only managed to win a 7-3 defensive snoozefest...the following week the Packers lost to the Patriots and haven't lost since...

So apparently the only weakness is that he can be concussed.  Or perhaps that he is apt to leave the pocket and try to run for extra yardage. 

This might be the Lions only chance...Rodgers, from all evidence to this point, has proven to actually be human...although I have begun to grow some doubts...and that means that his body and bones can be broken by the likes of Ndamukong Suh, Kyle VandenBosch, Cliff Avril, Corey Williams, and Nick Fairly...maybe even Willie "Mad Man" Young.

Here's hoping, we only have a few weeks to prepare...

So last night Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers put on an awesome offensive show in opening the season against the New Orleans Saints.  I will go so far as to say that the Packers, the reigning Super Bowl Champs, remain the team to beat this season...as long as Rodgers is standing...which is sort of a problem for the Lions and the rest of the NFC North...so....note to Ndamukong Suh...ahem....yeah....that guy...get him next.

The Leos open this season against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  A team that features a big, talented, mobile and creative quarterback in Josh Freeman.  He is one of the big up and comers in the league and the team he leads is both the youngest and one of the more talented squads out there.

There were real honest to goodness reasons why there was genuine debate two years ago about who the Lions should pick with second overall selection, Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy.  McCoy was supposedly built better for rushing the passer.  His game was speed and technique while Suh was more power and...sheer destructive force...

Suh was the NFL's Defensive Rookie of the Year last season and led all defensive tackles with 10 sacks...so maybe there were some people who were mistaken in their arguments....but that doesn't by any means make McCoy a slouch.  The guy can bring it and he is part of a young and disruptive defensive line.

So let me break this down as simply as I can for you...

TB Offense vs Det Defense

Truly this is a question of "Can the much vaunted Detroit defensive line stop the run?"  This has been an issue in the past and also during the 4-0 preseason.  Laguerette Blount is a workhorse running back who may not always be able to take it to the house,  he will churn out a lot of yards 4 and 6 at a time.

It is paramount that the the linebacking corps, which is 2/3 new to Detroit, fill the proper holes and maintiain their assignments or else it'll be a long day for the Lions.  It's all well and good to have an awesome pass rush...but if they other team never has to pass...it's all for naught.

Advantage: Tampa Bay

Det Offense vs TB Defense

Here is where I think the Lions have a distinct advantage.  Because their running game proved to be so unstoppable in the preseason?  Heck no...because of Calvin Johnson.  Johnson rang up 3 TD's and 150+ receiving yards last year with Drew Stanton throwing him the ball.  This year Stafford will be able to air it out a lot more and the TB secondary doesn't appear to have improved greatly since last year.  Ronde Barber is another year older, which I think makes him 106 and the Bucs guy on the other side might be younger, but he hasn't proven much either.

I like Stafford to Johnson a lot for at least a touchdown, probably two.

Prediction: Detroit 30, Tampa Bay 21