I watched this past weekend's football fully expecting to have Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tim Tebow shoved down my throat as a combined story lines of divergent ways that the future of NFL offenses may be going....Tom Brady and the Patriots embarrassing mutilation of the Broncos fully pushed into view exactly what the NFL thinks about the "Running Game/Sound Defense" theory of football teams...The NFL wants none of it.  In fact, after the Broncos-Patriots contest, I was fully of the opinion that what the NFL truly wants is 100-98 basketball-type scores. 

But then something funny happened...the Forty-Niners and Giants dethroned Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers, respectively in what had to have the people back in the New York offices mighty upset.  Where has the long anticipated opening day rematch of the Packers and Saints gone? 

The old adage has always been "Offense puts people in the seats, defense wins championships."  The NFL, via rule changes, questionable officiating, and broadcast television, have been trying for years to debunk this theory.

And for the most part they have.  The five yard chuck rule, the overzealous flagging of hits to the quarterback, the horse collar tackle, the protecting of receivers going over the middle...all of this has led to defenses being almost completely hand tied in their attempts to slow down offensive juggernauts...just as the NFL has foreseen...

But this past weekend...SF and NY seemingly made stands for the way football used to be played.  They won with enough defense to slow down these passing juggernauts...although in the SF-NO game, one could make the argument that the 49er defense simply managed to keep them in the game until the last five minute onslaught of offensive fireworks...but still...there was defense and there was a lot of rushing from Frank Gore and even Alex Smith scored on a 28 year QB keeper...

The old ways can still stand...but will they be allowed to next year?

So what did we learn?

1.  Defense can still win, but I fear that the Lions are not built with the kind of defense that does.  The Lions defense is built upon the defensive line, from the tackles out.  Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairly are cornerstones for the future...but the ends?  I'm worried about the defensive ends.

Kyle VandenBosch is an incredible motor guy and an unquestioned leader...but I don't think it's too far fetched to say that he gets by on his work ethic and non-stop motor than he does with his baseline talent.  If you look at the ends of SF and NY, you see lean long speedsters in the mold of a Julius Peppers (Justin Tuck, Osi Umeniyora, etc)...you might be able to say that KVB is a bit like SF's DE Justin Smith...but Smith is a much more powerful, younger, and faster version....this brings up the question of what to do about Cliff Avril, who will be negotiating for a new contract this offseason. 

Avril is a somewhat known commodity as he has increasingly gotten better every season, this year he had a career high 11 sacks...but he is not in the mold of a Tuck or a Peppers or Umeniyora...he is a shorter, fast end...he is not in the top 5 in the league...11 sacks is respectable...but that's supposed to be what he averages every year...if he's truly great, that'd be a down year for a pro bowl defensive end...Is that worth top 3-4 DE money in the league? 

On the other hand, this is the second new year under the new CBA--and most importantly, a rookie salary structure--and the prospect of trying to draft one or two of those long, lean speedsters and bargain basement prices might be best for the organization...especially when you consider the possibility of Calvin Johnson needing a new contract....

2. Great linebackers can make all the difference.  In SF, Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman are studs.  They are fast, mean, glass-chewing tackling machines.  They are players with misguided, evil, malevolent hearts when they are on the football field and they can stop the run and cover tight ends out of the backfield.  I don't think the Lions have a single linebacker that can do that.

Willis and Bowman rarely ever miss assignments, and they almost never miss a tackle.  In the Lions loss to the Saints, Tulloch was out of place several times and Justin Durant missed several tackles.

The Lions were one of the worst teams this season in rush defense and while a lot of the blame tends to get heaped upon the D-Line, I'm sure a lot of it should also get shoveled in the direction of the Detroit linebackers who were unable to fill the proper holes and even when they did properly fill missed too many tackles.

3. Teams are going to start loading up on cornerbacks...probably taller cornerbacks if possible.  Last offseason, I set my hopes on two cornerbacks...free agent Carlos Rogers...who was signed up by SF and is going to the pro bowl and Nebraska's Prince Amukamara...who was drafted by the Giants, had an off and on year, but was a big part of eliminating the Packers WR Jordy Nelson this past weekend and is now heading to the NFC Championship game...

Chris Houston had some awful games...Eric Wright didn't exactly light the league...

So, while the Lions are completely stacked at DT...there are still ALOT of positions that the need to be addressed this off season, both prudently and financially intelligently.

This week, Martin Mayhew locked up offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham, and special teams coordinator Danny Crossman for at least the next year.  He is supposedly currently working on extending the contract of Head Coach Jim Schwartz.

This move ensures a consistent leadership in the organization and the kind of continuity in philosophies that perennial football powers like Pittsburgh and New England have used to maintain dominance in the league.  Pittsburgh's Dick Lebeau has been running the Steelers 3-4 defense for...what seems like forever.  He probably coached against Lombardi...Monte Kiffin was the DC for Tampa Bay for something on the order of ten years...and for those ten years Tampa had one of the best defenses every year.  Tom Moore was the offensive coordinator for most of Peyton Manning's tenure in Indianapolis.

Familiarity breeds high amounts of skill when applied to a football team.  An organization knows exactly what it needs to fill the requirements for their scheme.

As Linehan and Cunningham head into the fourth year of their schemes, they know exactly where their deficiencies are.  Also, just as importantly, they know exactly the most important pieces of their teams that need to be kept. 

Namely, Calvin Johnson and Cliff Avril respectively.  The offense, and the Lions organization as a whole, absolutely must, if they want to continue annual trips to the playoffs, extend Calvin Johnson to a long, long term deal.  This will probably take up an unhealthy part of the team's salary cap, but that's unavoidable.  Megatron showed how incredibly vital he is to the continued progression of Stafford and the legitimizing of the team's offense.  Megatron is a unique and very special talent.  He is this decade's Barry Sanders to the Lions.  The organization could never have justified losing Sanders, just as much as the Lions cannot afford to lose Johnson.

Avril managed 11 sacks this past season and was already on a one year contract.  In the NFL, a defensive end that can average 10+ sacks a season and apply consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks has been placed on a pedestal right next to the franchise quarterback and the offensive cornerstone of a left tackle. 

Even though Avril, who has steadily improved year after year, managed double digits sacks for only the first time in his career, if he is allowed to test the free agent waters, he will be highly sought after around the league.  He will demand a large contract too.

Furthermore, the Lions must also attend to MLB Stephen Tulloch and CB Eric Wright, both of who were signed to one year contracts before the season.  Both Tulloch and Wright proved very valuable, especially early in the season, but as the season went on and the Lions defense seemed to fall apart, especially in the last two weeks of the season, one might have to wonder how much of that faltering falls on Wright or Tulloch or even Avril?

The Lions have a ton of decisions to make and only a limited supply of cash.  It'll be a very interesting offseason.

Matthew Stafford gave the Detroit Metro area and the entire state of Michigan a great early Christmas present on Christmas eve: A guaranteed trip to the playoffs.

Stafford was on fire from the time he set foot in the stadium on Saturday: 29 of 36 for 373 yards and 3 TDs...and most importantly 0 INTs.  And it wasn't all the Stafford to Johnson show either.  More than six different Lions players had two receptions or more.

And the defense were able to stop the run and also keep Philip Rivers, who came into the game as hot as any quarterback in the league, in check too...intercepting him twice.

For the first time since 1978, the Lions were able to beat the Chargers...one more nasty streak cut down by these young upstart Leos.

Next week, the Lions will once again have another monster streak to cut down...Lambeau Field.  Sure the Chargers streak was longer, but because the Lions play the Packers every year...and largely because of the Devil named "Favre"...this twenty year losing streak at Lambeau will get all the play this week.

But for a moment...let's enjoy their first trip to the post season....whew...I can't believe it.  It's shocking really.   Matthew Stafford has stayed healthy all year....silencing the boat loads of critics who claimed he was "injury prone."  I'm sorry to say I was leaning toward getting on that boat myself...

1. Stafford now holds the single season passing records for yards, touchdowns and completions.

2. Stafford is still only 23 and there is still one game left this season.

3. Calvin Johnson now has the most receiving touchdowns for a Lion in a season, 15.

4. Stafford to Johnson, hopefully, knock on wood, will own all the Lions records in a few years...or at least all the ones that don't have "Sanders" or "Hanson" on them.

5.  Merry Christmas everybody!  And thanks to the Lions.

I was going to write this great write-up of the last time the Packers and Lions hooked up on Thanksgiving with the Packers undefeated and the Lions with a winning record...

But then ESPN beat me to it...and SI's Peter King did it too...

So now, you probably already know that the last time the Lions and Packers played a game of this magnitude on Thanksgiving was 1962...and the Lions won.

Now, I'm a big proponent of history...in that I'm always terrified it's going to repeat itself...because I'm dealing with Lions history and none of it has been all that good for more than 50 years.  So who wants any of that stuff repeating itself?

Heck, the Lions are currently 7-3...which, in my book, means they can still match that 7-9 record that preceded 0-24.

But this history...this is GOOD history...even though they didn't win a championship in 1962.  It was the second year in a row they won something called the "Runners Up Game."  And really, that says a lot about what kind of ancient history this 1962 game is.  Can you imagine the NFL having a "Runners Up Game" now?  The week before the Super Bowl?

Hmm...now that I think about it, that'd be a heck of a lot better than getting stuck watching the ProBowl.

But, the game would have absolutely no meaning as there is no special prize for third place...and I'm sure the NFLPA would go crazy if anybody even suggested it.

But the Lions DID win that game in 1962 and then the Packers won the championship...which may very well happen again this season.

I am still very, very scared of Aaron Rodgers.  Sadly, he has become everything that I hoped he wouldn't become.  He's a little like Anakin Skywalker...you kind of thought, "Yeah, that kids good, but he's got a pretty bad attitude...eh, don't worry about him.  He probably won't ever amount to anything...."  And then BAM!  Darth Vader...was that too geeky of a tangent....sorry.

But Aaron Rodgers is the Darth Vader of the NFL these days.  He is slicing everybody up and the Lions are the next team on his target list for destruction.

Green Bay Offense vs Detroit Defense

Seriously?  The Packers have the number one offense in the NFL...perhaps the best NFL offense in a number of years.  Aaron Rodgers is almost unstoppable.

This is where the butter meats the bread....where the rubber meets the road...where the gravy covers the gibblets?  The Detroit Lions are built to play in the NFC North.  They have built an imposing defensive line designed to quickly disrupt the throwing prowess of Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler.  Suh and Avril and VandenBosch need to be in Rodgers' face at all times.  In the 1962 game, the Lions sacked Bart Starr 11 times....this year, Rodgers is playing so well, the Lions may have to do that every quarter.

The Packers already questionable run attack has taken another hit as starting RB James Starks came out of last weeks game injured and will probably play this week at less than a hundred percent. 

In the end, it probably doesn't matter.  Rodgers is the soul and engine of that team...only if the Lions can bury him in the turf can the Lions hope to win.  They need to break his ribs into dust, so that some time in the third or fourth quarter the world will be able to see his beating heart...glowing like ET just trying to go home...trying to get away...

Advantage: Packers

Green Bay Defense vs Detroit Offense

The Pack has one of the worst rated defenses in the league...which, in my book, means jack squat.  The reason the Packers are giving up so many yards is that they are blowing everybody out.  Teams are desperately throwing the ball in hail mary attempts to get back into these games.

Charles Woodson, BJ Raji, Tramon Williams and Clay Matthews are studs on that defense.  I just don't see the Lions offensive line being able to contain Williams and Raji for an entire game...just as much as I'd be shocked if Woodson doesn't get a pick six at some point in this game.

The Lions offense can score with the Packers...but this is still a very young team going up against the defending Super Bowl champs. I really worry about Stafford throwing against those two corners.  If Kevin Smith can get a ground game going and keep the Packers honest...things might get very interesting. 

Advantage: Even

Prediction

Packers 35, Lions 21

This game will be close for a while, but then I see the Lions faltering late (if they don't falter early too as they have been apt to do) and Stafford throwing a pick six to Woodson to end it.  Don't get me wrong, I want the Lions to win.  I'm pretty much certain that they will have to win at least one of their two games against the Packers in order to make the playoffs.  I will be cheering my head off all day...and I hope you will be too, because it's been a long time since we could do that on Thanksgiving.

I've told this story before and I'm going to tell it again, because it's true and it's scary and it is, after all, Halloween.

It was late fall and the 5-2 Lions were playing the Denver Broncos.  The Lions crushed the Broncos, scoring more than 40 points and getting two defensive touchdowns in the rout. 

Was this yesterday?  Yes...but it was also November 4th 2007.  That day defensive end Dwayne White recovered a fumble and returned it for a touchdown.  That day, Shaun Rogers picked off a pass and rumbled 66 yards for another defensive score.

Yesterday, again, the Lions rolled on to a 6-2 record.  Yesterday, defensive end Cliff Avril recovered a fumble and returned it for a touchdown.  Yesterday, defensive back Chris Houston intercepted a pass and returned it a 103 yards for a second defensive score.

The score then, 44-7.  This was the pinnacle point of the Millen/Marinelli era.  The score yesterday, 45-10.  What did the Lions do then?  Won only one more game that season and followed it up with 0-16...what will these Lions do this time?

I've brought this game up a lot, mostly because it scares the crap out of me as a Lions fan.  I am very superstitious when it comes to the Lions.  There are a lot of things I like about the way the Mayhew/Schartz regime has rebuilt this franchise.  Granted, I being a fan and not a GM would have probably done things a lot differently. I love that the Dline is the heart of the team.

In 2007, the Dline was also, supposedly, the heart of the team too.  In 2007, the Lions built a 6-2 record on lesser opponents and a lot of turnovers...This week the Lions are currently first in turnover differential...

In the NFL, you cannot rely on turnovers.

I don't mean to be a downer, but I am seeing an awful lot of parallels in this scenario.  The hardest part of the schedule is coming up after the bye week.  There are still two games with the undefeated Packers and another at Chicago.

Now, do I think that Jon Kitna was better than Stafford is now?  No.  Would I take Roy Williams over Calvin Johnson?  Not on your life. And I'd take Ndamukong Suh, Corey Williams and Nick Fairley over anybody on that 2007 defense, including Shaun Rogers...But I might take a young healthy Kevin Jones over a sidelined Jahvid Best...

So do I think that history is going to repeat itself?  No...not really...but I am jittery about it and now I have two weeks to fret about it as the Lions go into their bye week...