Before we get into the must win game against the Packers at Lambeau Field this Sunday, let's discuss how on Earth Eli Manning made the probowl over Matthew Stafford this season.  Aside from the fact that the Detroit Lions have had only one probowl quarterback since Bobby Layne...Greg Landry in 1971...40 years ago...there's another streak I'd hoped the Lions would break this year...a sheer stats comparison between the two should clearly show who was the better signal caller this season.

Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees were givens...they had to make the probowl.  The Packers almost went undefeated behind Rodger's super hot throwing and Brees just broke the passing yardage record which stood for almost 30 years...

Stafford has completed a higher percentage of his passes, with 10 more TD's and 2 fewer interceptions.  Manning managed to throw for 60 more yards over the season, but also has a lower QB rating and, most importantly, fewer wins.

Eli Manning engineered five come from behind victories--supposedly the key to a great quarterback's success is being able to bring a team back from the brink.  Joe Montana was a master at it.  John Elway was incredible.  A team is never out of a game when the guy taking the snaps has ice in his veins in the fourth quarter when everything is on the line and the score board is tilted in favor of the other guys.

Manning did this FIVE times this year.  The Giants were down, on average, 6 points when he had to pull them up and out of certain defeat.  That's pretty impressive....

Of course Stafford only managed to do this four times...but his deficits were different.  The Lions were down, on average almost 17 points in those games.  On two occasions, they were down more than 20 points...that's an entire game of scoring sometimes.  In my opinion, that's a wash, or maybe even a slight edge to Stafford.

Why is Stafford not in the probowl?  Because he doesn't play in New York....where Manning gets millions of extra votes from the hometown fans.

But...about the game...

The Packers have nothing to play for in this game.  They are 15-1 and wrapped up home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  The only thing the Packers truly have to be concerned about is keeping Aaron Rodgers healthy.  The fourth game of the preseason has just about as much value as this game for the Packers.

The Lions, on the other hand, NEED this game.  If the Lions can manage to win this game they will clinch the #5 seed in the playoffs.  The #5 seed will be playing the winner of the Cowboys/Giants game in the opening round of the playoffs...a game much more winnable than a trip to New Orleans or San Francisco--although I'd feel better about the Lions playing anybody but the Saints right now.

The Saints are on a tear.  They are a buzzsaw ripping through opponents right now.  Drew Brees has appeared virtually unstoppable in his last six games--one of those already being a blowout of the Lions.

I'd really like to see the Lions head to New York or Dallas, I think those games would probably have a much higher percentage chance of being won--and as everybody knows, the Lions have won only one playoff game since 1957 (1991)...Of course that was also the year of the last time the Lions won at Lambeau...

Packers Offense vs Lions Defense

 Truthfully, this is all about how much the Packers decide to play Aaron Rodgers.  Do they want to keep him safe on the shelf in order to have him perfectly healthy for what looks to be a long playoff run.  Or do they want to try and keep momentum going into the playoffs.

The last time Rodgers was hurt, a concussion sustained at the hands of our beloved Honolulu Blue, the Lions managed a 7-3 victory over the Packers and their second string QB Matt Flynn.  That victory was more than a year ago now and the Lions are a much, much different team now.

If the Packers sit Rodgers or only play him for a half or less....

Advantage: Lions

Packers Defense vs Lions Offense

Personally, I don't really understand why the Pacers D is ranked so low in so many categories.  BJ Raji is a monster, Clay Matthews is a ffierce and scary pass rusher and Charles Woodson is still the best corner back in the NFC...and his cornerback partner Tramon Williams might must be the second best...

But, for some reason, the Packers D IS at the bottom of the barrel.  I like Stafford's chances...especially after the huge slight he received from the NFL in not getting named to the probowl.  He's really got something to prove. 

The Lions offense and Stafford is really, really hot right now...

Advantage: Lions

Prediction: Detroit 28, Packers 17...an end to the curse of Lambeau Field...please, please don't let me have jinxed them...

It has taken me more than three days to get over that Thanksgiving day travesty of a game.  If you ate dinner really early and were in a Turkey coma or you were nursing a monster hangover and missed it...

I can't go on...there's no way anybody missed the monster-epic-massive contest between the 10-0 Green Bay Packers and the 7-3 upstart Detroit Lions...no way...which means that you saw what happened--all was revealed to you...

Ndamukong Suh has issues.  Perhaps, deep seated psychological issues.

The Lions were not winning.  They went into the half down only 7-0 to the undefeated defending Super Bowl Champs...and at the end of the first half, it really looked like they were finally applying pressure to the latest Darth Vader of the NFL, Aaron Rodgers.

The offense, despite some wretched throws by Stafford, had consistently moved the ball against the Packers...although they had been unable to come away with any points...mostly because of drive stalling penalties and a missed Jason Hanson field goal...not because the defense was proving good enough to stop them.

It was third down and three at ten yard line (approximately), the Packers had the ball and Rodgers forced an overthrow through the back of the endzone.  The Lions had stopped the mighty Packer offensive juggernaut AGAIN!  Sure, the Pack would most likely kick a field goal and make it a 10-0 lead, but anybody who's watched any Lions football this year knows that they don't even wake up until their at least 17 points down...things were looking up, especially against a defense that was giving up yards like crazy.

And then it happened.  Ndamukong Suh got tangled up with a Packer offensive lineman.  The lineman pulled Suh to the ground and appeared unwilling to let him go...this, in hindsight is called "holding" most of the time...but these are the Lions and they don't get calls like this...furthermore this was probably the fourth or fifth non-called holding on the drive...but whatever...the Packer lineman goes to the ground, dragging Suh with him.  Suh takes offense to this and shoves his head into the ground three times in "an attempt to get up."  Then, when he is finally able to free himself...he lashes out with a foot to kick the downed Packer again.

In truth, this is indefensible. 

But let me try to defend it anyway.  I can see where Suh's frustrations were building.  He, and the rest of the defensive lineman were being mugged--Cliff Avril has been quoted as saying his wallet was stolen by the Packer RT...--and there were no calls.  The defense had played a very good game and only due to a Stafford interception had they given up any points at all...

Most frustrating...but then he blew his top...and may very well have blown the Lions playoff chances this season. 

After the games this past weekend, the Lions went from being the #5 seed--if the playoffs ended today--to out of the playoffs all together.

Why?

In a very short 24 hour span, the Lions went from 7-3 and a real contender to talking about what running back they need to draft next April.

First they lost to Green Bay...now the record is 7-4.  Also, they've lost Suh, for at least two games due to his impending suspension for complete stupidity...during the game they lost Louis Delmas and Chris Houston to injuries (Losing two of your four starters in your secondary the week you go to play the #1 passing offense in the league is not a good plan for success.)  Furthermore, they lost RB Kevin Smith...they're only legitimate running threat since Jahvid Best's concussion...for who knows how long...and then the following day...they put Jahvid Best on the IR...lost for the season...no coming back. 

Atlanta, which holds the tie breaker advantage over the Lions, won also...tying them with the Lions.

Now, with no Suh and two backups in the secondary, the Lions go to New Orleans to play Drew Brees and his band of playmakers.  Not a good outlook...so, 7-5 probably...and another game back of Atlanta...playoff chances looking really, really slim now.

Furthermore, look at the Lions running back group...Mikel Leshoure-IR, Jahvid Best-IR, Kevin Smith-high ankle sprain, doubtful...yeah, that's about it.  Also, you can't know if Jahvid Best will EVER come back.  He may be forced to retire for his own safety.  Leshoure will have to come back from a torn achilles tendon, which is no gimme by a long stretch...and Kevin Smith, the guy who was out for the better part of two seasons with injuries, came back for one game and then...that's right...got injured.

You see where I'm going here....

Such a sad end to such a promising year...and there's still more than a month to go.

With the 15th pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions select....Running Back from...

I was going to write this great write-up of the last time the Packers and Lions hooked up on Thanksgiving with the Packers undefeated and the Lions with a winning record...

But then ESPN beat me to it...and SI's Peter King did it too...

So now, you probably already know that the last time the Lions and Packers played a game of this magnitude on Thanksgiving was 1962...and the Lions won.

Now, I'm a big proponent of history...in that I'm always terrified it's going to repeat itself...because I'm dealing with Lions history and none of it has been all that good for more than 50 years.  So who wants any of that stuff repeating itself?

Heck, the Lions are currently 7-3...which, in my book, means they can still match that 7-9 record that preceded 0-24.

But this history...this is GOOD history...even though they didn't win a championship in 1962.  It was the second year in a row they won something called the "Runners Up Game."  And really, that says a lot about what kind of ancient history this 1962 game is.  Can you imagine the NFL having a "Runners Up Game" now?  The week before the Super Bowl?

Hmm...now that I think about it, that'd be a heck of a lot better than getting stuck watching the ProBowl.

But, the game would have absolutely no meaning as there is no special prize for third place...and I'm sure the NFLPA would go crazy if anybody even suggested it.

But the Lions DID win that game in 1962 and then the Packers won the championship...which may very well happen again this season.

I am still very, very scared of Aaron Rodgers.  Sadly, he has become everything that I hoped he wouldn't become.  He's a little like Anakin Skywalker...you kind of thought, "Yeah, that kids good, but he's got a pretty bad attitude...eh, don't worry about him.  He probably won't ever amount to anything...."  And then BAM!  Darth Vader...was that too geeky of a tangent....sorry.

But Aaron Rodgers is the Darth Vader of the NFL these days.  He is slicing everybody up and the Lions are the next team on his target list for destruction.

Green Bay Offense vs Detroit Defense

Seriously?  The Packers have the number one offense in the NFL...perhaps the best NFL offense in a number of years.  Aaron Rodgers is almost unstoppable.

This is where the butter meats the bread....where the rubber meets the road...where the gravy covers the gibblets?  The Detroit Lions are built to play in the NFC North.  They have built an imposing defensive line designed to quickly disrupt the throwing prowess of Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler.  Suh and Avril and VandenBosch need to be in Rodgers' face at all times.  In the 1962 game, the Lions sacked Bart Starr 11 times....this year, Rodgers is playing so well, the Lions may have to do that every quarter.

The Packers already questionable run attack has taken another hit as starting RB James Starks came out of last weeks game injured and will probably play this week at less than a hundred percent. 

In the end, it probably doesn't matter.  Rodgers is the soul and engine of that team...only if the Lions can bury him in the turf can the Lions hope to win.  They need to break his ribs into dust, so that some time in the third or fourth quarter the world will be able to see his beating heart...glowing like ET just trying to go home...trying to get away...

Advantage: Packers

Green Bay Defense vs Detroit Offense

The Pack has one of the worst rated defenses in the league...which, in my book, means jack squat.  The reason the Packers are giving up so many yards is that they are blowing everybody out.  Teams are desperately throwing the ball in hail mary attempts to get back into these games.

Charles Woodson, BJ Raji, Tramon Williams and Clay Matthews are studs on that defense.  I just don't see the Lions offensive line being able to contain Williams and Raji for an entire game...just as much as I'd be shocked if Woodson doesn't get a pick six at some point in this game.

The Lions offense can score with the Packers...but this is still a very young team going up against the defending Super Bowl champs. I really worry about Stafford throwing against those two corners.  If Kevin Smith can get a ground game going and keep the Packers honest...things might get very interesting. 

Advantage: Even

Prediction

Packers 35, Lions 21

This game will be close for a while, but then I see the Lions faltering late (if they don't falter early too as they have been apt to do) and Stafford throwing a pick six to Woodson to end it.  Don't get me wrong, I want the Lions to win.  I'm pretty much certain that they will have to win at least one of their two games against the Packers in order to make the playoffs.  I will be cheering my head off all day...and I hope you will be too, because it's been a long time since we could do that on Thanksgiving.

For years the greatest nemesis in Lions-dom was the foul and nasty Brett Favre.  He won for 20+ years against the Lions....there was no silver bullet for that guy...oh, they beat him like two or three times in that twenty years, but for the most part, the Lions could not stop him..and he could do no wrong.

Favre's only weakness was his own ego.  If a team could manage to get him down more than two touchdowns, the old man would press and that underlying gunslinger would come out and he'd throw a couple of team killing interceptions.

But for the better part of the nineties and early 2000's, the guy played at a level much higher than the rest of the league.  He played mistake free...made impossible passes...and the Packers were perennial playoff contenders...heck, they pretty much ruled the NFC North for his entire reign of evil.

Of course now the "good ol' boy" from Kiln is gone...he's been gone from the Packers for a while now...and Aaron Rodgers just didn't seem to throw the fear of God into your average Lions fan...until now.

He is now the first QB in NFL history to go eight games with a 110+ QB rating...he's won 14 games in a row...he looks to be playing at a level even greater than the Devil who wore #4...and he's got me really, really nervous.  Rodgers appears to have no weaknesses...in fact, it's been so long since he's had a bad game, one begins to wonder if he even has a weakness at all.

Yes, the Lions did manage to beat the Packers last year after knocking him out of the game.  In that game, the Lions still only managed to win a 7-3 defensive snoozefest...the following week the Packers lost to the Patriots and haven't lost since...

So apparently the only weakness is that he can be concussed.  Or perhaps that he is apt to leave the pocket and try to run for extra yardage. 

This might be the Lions only chance...Rodgers, from all evidence to this point, has proven to actually be human...although I have begun to grow some doubts...and that means that his body and bones can be broken by the likes of Ndamukong Suh, Kyle VandenBosch, Cliff Avril, Corey Williams, and Nick Fairly...maybe even Willie "Mad Man" Young.

Here's hoping, we only have a few weeks to prepare...

So last night Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers put on an awesome offensive show in opening the season against the New Orleans Saints.  I will go so far as to say that the Packers, the reigning Super Bowl Champs, remain the team to beat this season...as long as Rodgers is standing...which is sort of a problem for the Lions and the rest of the NFC North...so....note to Ndamukong Suh...ahem....yeah....that guy...get him next.

The Leos open this season against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  A team that features a big, talented, mobile and creative quarterback in Josh Freeman.  He is one of the big up and comers in the league and the team he leads is both the youngest and one of the more talented squads out there.

There were real honest to goodness reasons why there was genuine debate two years ago about who the Lions should pick with second overall selection, Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy.  McCoy was supposedly built better for rushing the passer.  His game was speed and technique while Suh was more power and...sheer destructive force...

Suh was the NFL's Defensive Rookie of the Year last season and led all defensive tackles with 10 sacks...so maybe there were some people who were mistaken in their arguments....but that doesn't by any means make McCoy a slouch.  The guy can bring it and he is part of a young and disruptive defensive line.

So let me break this down as simply as I can for you...

TB Offense vs Det Defense

Truly this is a question of "Can the much vaunted Detroit defensive line stop the run?"  This has been an issue in the past and also during the 4-0 preseason.  Laguerette Blount is a workhorse running back who may not always be able to take it to the house,  he will churn out a lot of yards 4 and 6 at a time.

It is paramount that the the linebacking corps, which is 2/3 new to Detroit, fill the proper holes and maintiain their assignments or else it'll be a long day for the Lions.  It's all well and good to have an awesome pass rush...but if they other team never has to pass...it's all for naught.

Advantage: Tampa Bay

Det Offense vs TB Defense

Here is where I think the Lions have a distinct advantage.  Because their running game proved to be so unstoppable in the preseason?  Heck no...because of Calvin Johnson.  Johnson rang up 3 TD's and 150+ receiving yards last year with Drew Stanton throwing him the ball.  This year Stafford will be able to air it out a lot more and the TB secondary doesn't appear to have improved greatly since last year.  Ronde Barber is another year older, which I think makes him 106 and the Bucs guy on the other side might be younger, but he hasn't proven much either.

I like Stafford to Johnson a lot for at least a touchdown, probably two.

Prediction: Detroit 30, Tampa Bay 21