After experiencing the Lions playoff loss to the Saints, a 45-28 lopsided inevitability, I was overly emotional, irrationally enraged by the absurdity of how it all transpired.

As the scored again and again and again, a progression of thoughts occurred to me.

1. The NFL loves the passing game so much that pretty soon holding penalties will be abolished.  Pretty much like it was in New Orleans.

2. Perhaps the NFL just refused to be denied their inevitable Saints-Packers NFC Championship game...as I watched Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairly get held on play after play after play.  Three Saints held Suh back as Brees completed another deep pass.  A Saint held a fist full of the back of Fairly's jersey holding him back just enough that Brees could launch another deep pass.

3. The NBC announcers, the ESPN announcers, the NFL Network team and the Fox crew want nothing to do with the Detroit Lions.  Chris Collinsworth, while doing color for the game would routinely exalt the greatness of Brees while openly ignoring the blatantly obvious holding penalties happening all around him.  On the play where Brees was sacked and fumbled the ball...only to have fumble picked up and by Justin Durant with a clear path to the endzone...instead of being appalled by the incredibly ignorant officiating, he complained that the refs hadn't screwed up enough to allow the Saints to somehow keep the ball...The NFL Network's Deion Sanders refuses to acknowledge the progression of the young Lions...

4. I'm not saying the Lions would have won the game if it had been called correctly.  I merely say that this game would have been a LOT closer.

5. The Lions could not rebound from three dropped interceptions.

6. They could not find any way to get Brees and his horde of offensive weapons off the field...the Saints never had to punt.  The only times their drives didn't end in touchdowns, they ended with a field goal (at the end of the first half) or in two turnovers the Lions simply were unable to capitalize on.

7. The Saints are an offensive juggernaut.  And their complete dismantling of the Lions defense, they were generous to show Martin Mayhew and Jim Schwartz the team's most glaring need.  Defensive backs.  Look for the Lions to address the back 7 with as much fervor and single-minded abandon as they  have their front four this offseason.

8. The "Wide 9" may not be designed to forsake rush defense in or to generate more pass rush...but that's exactly what it does and that needs to change.  If that requires the dismissal of Gunther Cunningham, so be it.

9. Matthew Stafford, if he can stay healthy, is going to have the Lions in the playoffs in most years.  He's that good.

10. The Lions simply HAVE TO sign Calvin Johnson to a career length contract as soon as possible.

11. The secondary must be addressed and do not be surprised if the Lions don't make a serious run at Titans CB Courtland Finnegan.  Finnegan has experience with Jim Schwartz...just like Kyle VandenBosch and Stephen Tulloch...

12. I cannot remember, in my whole lifetime, the Detroit Lions having a probowl-worthy ball hawking corner back.  Dre Bly was probably the closest...but he was really just a bit better than adequate.  The Lions haven't had that kind of presence since Dick "Night Train" Lane. 

13.  Just like it was time for the Lions to find a replacement for Bobby Layne (which we've done with the play of Stafford), it is now time to find a replacement for the Night Train...

In the NFL you can only play who the next team that gets put on your schedule.  It's always a great argument whenever somebody puts a team down by saying, "Well, look at who they played!  Of course they're..."  If you take apart the Lions schedule this season and look at their 6 losses (2 losses to Green Bay, 15-1, 1 to New Orleans, 13-3, 1 to San Francisco, 13-3, 1 to Chicago 8-8, and 1 to Atlanta, 10-6), you might feel justified in keeping up with that argument.  Five of those six teams are going to the playoffs and Chicago was a real contender until they lost their starting quarterback for the year.  You might say that the Lions just can't beat the big boys...can't hang with the real contenders...

And you may be right...

But let's look at the Lions 31-17 loss a few weeks ago to this weeks wild card opponent, the New Orleans Saints.

1. 31-17 is only two scores...For the Lions, the way they've consistently come back in games this year, it's practically tied.

2. The first game was the first game Matthew Stafford played without his protective glove...and his hand was still sore...of course he still for over 400 yards in that game...

3. This was the first game of Ndamukong Suh's suspension.  Nick Fairly played extremely well for the first quarter and then was taken out after re-aggravating his previously broken foot. So the pass rush was severely hampered.

4. Kevin Smith, playing for the already IR'd Jahvid Best, went down in the second quarter with a high ankle sprain.

5. S Louis Delmas didn't play.  CB Chris Houston was held out with an injury too.  CB Eric Wright went out with an ankle or knee injury during the game...The secondary was decimated.

6. The Lions were called for FOUR personal foul calls which greatly helped the Saints sustain drives and score.  They were also called for an incredibly ridiculous face mask call on Nate Burleson when he tried to stiff arm a defender as he was going out of bounds. 

Now let's look at what will be different this game...

1. Stafford is completely healed and on fire after throwing for 520 yards and 5 TD's against the Packers (5,038 yards this season, only the fourth QB in the history of the NFL to accomplish this feat.)

2. Ndamukong Suh will play.  It appears that Nick Fairly will play.

3. The entire starting secondary of the Lions is set to play...and they have a lot to prove after they gave up 480 yards and 6 TD's to Aaron Rodgers' backup.

4. Kevin Smith is healthy.

5. New Orleans RB Mark Ingram, who scored in the first game, will be out this time around.

Now all that stuff is nice and all...but in the end, I really, really think that this game comes down two things...maybe three.

1. How good of a coach is Jim Schwartz...and his assistants?  The Lions have already played the Saints.  They know what they're all about.  What did they learn?  Will the Lions' adjustments prove to be better than New Orleans' coach Sean Payton's?

2. Penalties.  Will the Lions continue their assault on the NFL rulebook?  Will the whistles continue to blow against the Honolulu
Blue?  I'm sorry, but if you've noticed anything over this season...other than everybody and their brother calls the Lions "undisciplined and dirty"...is that they are not ever getting any calls, they are the victims of facemasks and holdings and offsides and pass interferences...and they do not get calls.  The Lions are getting mugged every Sunday and they are the ones being called dirty.

If you watched the Packers game, which was the first time anyone has said anything about the huge discrepancy in calls, you saw a blatant shot to the Kevin Smith's head as he scored a touchdown, no call.  A touchdown not called.  A muffed punt by Jordy Nelson.  A non-muffed bad call on Stefan Logan...

The Lions DO seriously need to stop with all of the dumb penalties and all of the regular penalties too.  They had 11 penalties against the Packers...but the games need to start getting called both ways too.

I'm not saying that's why the Lions lost to the Packers on Sunday...or all of their other losses, but the evidence of unbalanced officiating just keeps piling up.  The Lions lost to the Packers because they wouldn't have been able to cover a tree...but all those penalties and non-called Packer/Saint/etc calls.

3. Ndamukong Suh needs to have a Big 12 Championship type game...and if Nick Fairly and Corey Williams could chip in too that'd be awful nice.  The more pressure on Brees, the better.

Matthew Stafford gave the Detroit Metro area and the entire state of Michigan a great early Christmas present on Christmas eve: A guaranteed trip to the playoffs.

Stafford was on fire from the time he set foot in the stadium on Saturday: 29 of 36 for 373 yards and 3 TDs...and most importantly 0 INTs.  And it wasn't all the Stafford to Johnson show either.  More than six different Lions players had two receptions or more.

And the defense were able to stop the run and also keep Philip Rivers, who came into the game as hot as any quarterback in the league, in check too...intercepting him twice.

For the first time since 1978, the Lions were able to beat the Chargers...one more nasty streak cut down by these young upstart Leos.

Next week, the Lions will once again have another monster streak to cut down...Lambeau Field.  Sure the Chargers streak was longer, but because the Lions play the Packers every year...and largely because of the Devil named "Favre"...this twenty year losing streak at Lambeau will get all the play this week.

But for a moment...let's enjoy their first trip to the post season....whew...I can't believe it.  It's shocking really.   Matthew Stafford has stayed healthy all year....silencing the boat loads of critics who claimed he was "injury prone."  I'm sorry to say I was leaning toward getting on that boat myself...

1. Stafford now holds the single season passing records for yards, touchdowns and completions.

2. Stafford is still only 23 and there is still one game left this season.

3. Calvin Johnson now has the most receiving touchdowns for a Lion in a season, 15.

4. Stafford to Johnson, hopefully, knock on wood, will own all the Lions records in a few years...or at least all the ones that don't have "Sanders" or "Hanson" on them.

5.  Merry Christmas everybody!  And thanks to the Lions.

The world seems to have already pencilled in the Detroit Lions as the fifth or sixth seed in the NFC playoffs, but I wouldn't start buying tickets to San Francisco or New Orleans yet.  There is still a very real possibility that the Lions will not make the playoffs at all.

I know...I speak blasphemy, but look at who they play over the next two weeks, needing at least one win or a whole lot of help in order to make the big dance.  The Chargers have won three games in a row and have positioned themselves to have a shot at making the playoffs themselves.  They managed to beat Jacksonville and Buffalo and while those two teams have either imploded in the last few weeks--if not the whole season-- last week the Chargers put a 34-14 beat down on the playoff bound and Super Bowl contending Baltimore Ravens.

Philip Rivers, who was abysmal the first half of the season has not thrown an interception in this three game winning streak and has completed over 70% of his passes.

If the Lions can't beat the Chargers this year...they always have a chance to clinch next week...against the Packers...at Lambeau...where they haven't won since 1991.

1. The Lions haven't beaten the Chargers since 1978...another one of those long losing streaks the Lions can break this season.

2. This year the Lions are 3-0 against the AFC West.

3. I always like to see the Chargers and namely, corner back Quentin Jammer, the guy the Lions were supposed to take instead of Joey "Blue Skies" Harrington.  The great thing about Jammer is...he's still playing.  He many not be a Hall of Famer, but he's been consistent and durable for years.

4. The Chargers are playing to show that they really are that preseason Super Bowl contender that many prognosticators thought them to be.  They're also playing to help head coach Norv Turner help keep his job.  Turner has kind of become the modern day Wayne Fontes...somebody that fans and media are always calling for firing, but mounts a late season resurrection.

5. If this truly is the year to break all of those old streaks then the Lions probably beat the Chargers...and then they miraculously beat the Packers next week and also manage to get sent out to San Francisco for their playoff game, where they haven't won since the 70's also...and manage a trip to the NFC Divisional round...

6.  Yeah, I'm not buying it either.

Chargers Offense vs Lions Defense

Philip Rivers has been on fire.  The Lions secondary is depleted. That's not a good combination.

Furthermore, Jim Schwartz vehemently denied that the "Wide 9" defense that the Lions employ stresses pass rush at the expense of run defense...which the Lions have proven, despite having one of the most talented and destructive defensive lines, to be very poor at...If the defensive design isn't flawed...then something needs to get fixed, because Ryan Matthews will run all over the Lions if they do not clean this up.

Advantage: Chargers

Chargers Defense vs Lions Offense

Quentin Jammer can't contain Calvin Johnson.  Antoine Cason cannot contain Calvin Johnson.  If the Matthew Stafford doesn't contain Calvin Johnson--by completely missing him with passes or forgetting him altogether--the Lions can score on the Chargers. 

But the Lions still need to figure out some kind of running game to keep the Chargers honest.

Advantage: Lions

Prediction:

I am a long time Lions fan, which means that I expect disappointment.  Furthermore, the more the talking heads in the media keep assuming the Lions making the playoffs is almost a foregone conclusion, the more I'm assured that they will not be playing in the playoffs.  Somebody has got to shut those guys up.  They're jinxing us.

Chargers 34, Lions 21

Let me make this clear, I am a Lions slappy.  I live and die by the team and I will always hold it in my heart that they WILL come back and win.

That's why I'm an idiot.  That's why I'm always heart broken.

For the second week in a row all of the "cards" fell into place for the Lions to cement themselves as the leader in the clubhouse to grab at least the last wild card spot, if not the fifth seed.  The Giants lost.  The Bears lost.  If the Lions could beat the Raiders they'd have a really good shot of grabbing one of those two spots in the next two weeks.

Which is why they came out and played like crap for most of three quarters.  I was firmly under the impression that this was just a really young team who didn't understand how to deal with the kind of pressure applied to a team in the midst of a playoff stretch.

Matthew Stafford was missing open receivers or if he did manage to hit them, the Lions would drop them--9 dropped passes on the day...how can you win like that?  The running game never got on track and the majority of the Lions offense came on a handful of big plays that simply kept them close.

The Lions weren't stopping the run either and the corners were treating Oakland receivers as if they had some sort of communicable disease.  Chris Houston, playing an injured ankle, was giving a ten yard cushion...when he wasn't giving a fifteen yard cushion...and he also looked like he had decided that tackling was a job best left for other players.  He had a bad, bad game.

But then, in the fourth quarter, when it all mattered most, the Lions woke up again.  They've been doing this too much this season.  This is a trend that will not play in the playoffs...

Look at me, talking about playoffs in December and I'm not even using a statement like, "Someday, hopefully before I die, when the Lions make the playoffs." 

1. Stafford needs to start hitting more of these open receivers.  Also, in watching Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo, when these quarterbacks are under pressure, they pull the ball down in order to make time to throw the ball down field.  That's not what Stafford does--Stafford pulls the ball down, waiting for a sack or in order to be able to better throw the ball away.  I don't know if that's something that he has to learn...or something he has been taught.  It's scary.

2.  Until Chris Houston is 110% healthy, they need to let Alphonso Smith play.  He may give up a pass every once in a while, but he also makes big plays.

3. I loved when Stafford pulled it down in order to get three yards and a first down on that critical late game fourth down play.

4. Ndamukong Suh came back for his first game and remained relatively invisible until the last play of the game.  If this continues, that suspension has done a lot more damage than it's done good.

5. The Lions are still WAY too penalty prone.

6. The offensive line, and Dominic Raioloa in particular, looked pathetic against that Raiders front.  Stafford was under too much constant pressure and the running game was...bad.  Raiola couldn't handle Richard Seymour and that was just the beginning of the Lions line problems.

7. Calvin Johnson is a stud.  Titus Young could be a star in this league.  Burleson and Pettigrew and Kevin Smith need to have superglue applied to their hands.

8. If the Lions can win either of their last two games (San Diego, at Green Bay) they'll clinch a spot.  If they lose out, they can still get in if, over the next two weeks,  each of the following teams suffers a loss: Giants, Bears, Seahawks, and Cardinals...and the Seahawks and Cardinals play each other, the Seahawks other game is against San Francisco.  The Bears play Green Bay and the Giants play the Cowboys.

I'm not sure how this happened.  I don't know in exactly what completely random order the stars fell into alignment to make this happen, but according to the "Playoff Machine" at ESPN the Detroit Lions, if they can manage to win one of their next two games have something like an 80-90% chance of making the playoffs.

It's weird, I know. 

Due to an interesting set of tie breakers, if the Lions can manage to beat both the Raiders and the Chargers, they will be guaranteed a berth and a shot to make magic as a wild card team.

Of course, they have to win. 

They have to stop the ancient Carson Palmer and the powerful and punishing Micheal Bush. 

Notes:

1. The Raiders went and dug up the grave of Carson Palmer after both of their quarterbacks from training camp went down with season ending injuries.  Palmer has played in six games and has amassed a 3-3 record, while quickly joining the top 10 in interceptions.

2. The Raiders have lost their last two games by a combined score of 80-30...losing to Green Bays is understandable, if not expected, but getting blown out by  the 4-9 Dolphins...that's not a good sign for a Raiders team that is also on the playoff bubble.

3. Deion Sanders does not like the Detroit Lions...I don't know if this goes all the way back to Sanders saying before his 1989 NFL Draft that "Detroit would have to put me on layaway" if they decided to draft him...but ever since, he takes every chance he can to say how he does not believe that the Lions are for real.  Last night, during the Atlanta Falcons-Jacksonville Jaguars pregame show, NFL Network did a segment with balloons, each balloon with a team that is on the bubble of the playoffs...even though the Lions only need to win 1 of 3 remaining games to have a legitimate shot of getting in....Sanders jumped at the chance to pop their balloon.  It just seems weird to me, that's all.

4.  This is the first game that Ndamukong Suh will play since his two game suspension.  I can't help but think he will be more than a little motivated by his experiences so far in the month of December.  Here's hoping he plays Big 12 Championship - type football (where he owned the game, became incredibly famous and registered four sacks of Colt McCoy) and can manage to not get flagged anymore.

5. Kevin Smith has practiced this week and should play.  Nick Fairly practiced early this week, but hasn't since and shouldn't.

6. The secondary is still in trouble.  While Chris Houston should be coming back this week, it is possible that Eric Wright will simply take his place on the bench.  It also appears that star safety Louis Delmas will miss another game.  Here's hoping that Alphonso Smith can continue to be the playmaker he's shown himself to be when he gets the chance to get on the field.

Oakland Offense vs Detroit Defense

Carson Palmer is old, immobile and prone to throw dangerous picks.  Mike Bush is a powerful runner that needs to get into a rhythm.  If the Lions couldn't stop Toby Gerhart, I'm a little worried about how they'll do against Bush.  The Raiders also have a handful of speed burners at receiver that might prove a problem for Detroit's depleted secondary.

Personally, I think this is going to be a big game for Suh.  I look for him to dominate at times and force a couple fumbles and probably an interception or two.

Advantage: Detroit

Oakland Defense vs Detroit Offense

This is a team that has given up 80 points in the last two weeks.  Obviously, something is going wrong there.  The Lions are making a west coast trip and while that usually has a negative impact on teams, I don't think that the Raiders secondary can keep up with Johnson, Burleson and the emerging Titus Young.  Furthermore, the return of Kevin Smith--if he can somehow manage to play an entire game--will also add to the firepower.

Advantage: Detroit

Prediction

If the Lions let Bush run like Gerhart ran, they will lose this game.  I just think that Suh and the boys will step up against the Raiders, a team that appears to be falling apart down the stretch.  The Lions need this game and a big, big game from Suh.

Lions 28, Oakland 20